Pierre Conner
美国杜兰大学弗里曼商学院能源研究所负责人，管理科学实践教授。主讲能源市场、经济学与政策以及能源课题研究等课程。他还负责杜兰能源研究所的战略制定及具体运营，该研究所负责监督能源相关的学术项目，为能源行业及相关银行、咨询、金融、技术以及交易公司培养专业人才。
Conner 拥有近40年的能源行业运营及金融从业经验。在加入杜兰大学商学院之前，Conner 曾担任Capital One Securities公司总裁，该公司是Capital One Financial Corporation的子公司，主要从事能源证券精品投资。他还曾就职于Southcoast Capital，担任过该公司的能源分析师及股票销售研究及交易主管等职务。 在进入资本市场之前，Conner曾担任埃克森美孚国内钻井公司的工程经理，作业范围覆盖墨西哥湾、加利福尼亚近海以及阿拉斯加北坡地区，他还参与了埃克森美孚公司的合并。
Q1
Student: What are the major factors that drive oil price drop so quickly and so seriously? What will be the bottom range of this price drop?
学生：您认为导致此次油价短时间内暴跌的主要因素有哪些？此次油价波动的下限区间大概是多少？
A
Conner：OPEC plus Russia have been cooperating to keep production off the market recently and kept an oversupply from negatively impacting prices as US production has grown to record levels and exceeded both Saudi and Russia’s production levels. Saudi made it public that when Russia did not agree to co-operate on cuts they would reduce prices and increase production to offset the lower levels of prices, compounding the problem. This happened by cutting prices to customers and stating they would increase production to take market share. The bottom of the range is usually over shot (as is the top of the range). There is not any support to speak of that will take current production off the market because incremental costs to produce oil on a cash basis are quite low could fall to $20/bbl to rebalance the market (Goldman Sachs research) Why would Russia not co-operated with Saudi? They want to try to take US production out of the equation and it has been reported Russia was with US sanctions against Rosneft and blocking Nord Stream 2 pipeline. There is not central control over US production so only price impacts activity.
Q2
Student: What influence it will make to the oil industry in the near future (3-years) and when do you see that the oil price would become stable again?
学生：此次油价震荡对未来三年的石油行业将带来什么影响？您认为何时油价会再次趋于稳定？
A
Conner：There is a large wall of bond maturity for small to mid-cap producers onshore coming in 2021 and 2022. Combined by lack of capital access from the equity markets and reduced bank financing from lower price decks PLUS investor demands of cash returns, there will be a lack of capital inflows to the sector and because the shale play is where all the US growth has come from, given a declining base of production, you will see a decline in US production. The lower the price the quicker the response in declining production the quicker the price would have a chance to rebound.
Q3
Student: Before Saudi announced that it would increase oil production, Russia and Saudi have reduced their production, which helped the U.S. shale oil to increase its market share. Now, the world is flooded with cheap oil, what will happen to these U.S. shale companies in short term and long term?
学生：在沙特宣布增加石油产量之前，俄罗斯和沙特已经减少了石油产量，此举助推了美国页岩油提高其市场份额。如今，世界充斥着廉价石油，短期和长期来看，美国页岩油公司将何去何从？
A
Conner：There will be a significant number of bankruptcies. However, currently producing wells will continue to try to pay off debt holders and companies can be sold to other operators with lower cost structures and possibly better liquidity. Bankruptcies in the short term, properties owned by larger companies in the longer term and consolidation to most profitable plays where companies have options of where to spend capital for the best return (overall) and shale is not competitive economically therefore shale production will decline.
Q4
Student: With this unprecedented oil price slump, could you please share with us your thoughts on any fundamental changes that will happen in the near future in the world economic and political stages?
学生：面对前所未有的油价暴跌，能否请您与我们分享一下您对世界经济政治局势的看法，在不久的将来会发生哪些根本性的变化?
A
Conner：Saudi and Russia will take back over the top spot for producers as the US declines and capital flows out of the space overall (service companies, etc). This will drop the value of the dollar likely as Russia and Saudi fill customers that the US was selling oil to. US oil exports will likely drop and the amount of associated natural gas production will also drop as well. This will increase the price of natural gas that LNG exporters buy.
Q5
Student: What should we do or invest during this low gas (oil? or gasoline?) price?
学生：在油气价格低迷时期，我们应该如何行动？如何投资?
A
Conner：Companies with a high percentage of cost of fuel or raw materials from oil will see a decline in cost and if they can hold revenue could see a margin increase. (airlines when coronavirus is out of the way). Refineries will have a lower feedstock cost. This may also make EVs even less attractive and higher payout unless regulations force a lower sale of ICE cars. Many service companies or small cap onshore US companies will go bankrupt. This shows that it is important to grow a countries energy supplies and energy independence in order to not be held hostage if indeed the Saudi/Russia cooperation returns after putting the US shale in decline and try to raise prices carefully to prevent the US from coming back to fast.
